Support for Scotland Independence Could Rise with Brexit: Academic

Polls show that Brexit could slightly increase support for Scotland independence but not provide a decisive majority. Independence would be more difficult if Scotland were in the EU and the rest of the UK out, as that would create hard EU border between the two countries, Director of the Centre on Constitutional Change and Professor of Politics at the University of Aberdeen Michael Keating told the Tasnim News Agency on Monday.

Following is the full text of the interview.

Q: As you are aware the UK is planned to hold a referendum on June 23 on whether the country should remain a member of the European Union (EU). What is your take on this? What do people and political parties in Scotland think of it?

A: There is a broad consensus in civil society in Scotland in favor of remaining in the EU which means that debates have been less animated than in England. The immigration issue is less salient. Scottish public opinion supports Remain by a margin of about 2 to 1.
The leaders of all the parties represented in the Scottish Parliament are in favor of Remain. A few Conservative MSPs support leave but they are in the minority. Some Labour Party activists are also campaigning for Leave but they are also in a minority.

Q: Senior officials with Scottish National Party (SNP) have repeatedly stressed that in case of Yes Vote to Brexit, another independence referendum should be held in Scotland. How much do you think it is possible? If so, how would London and the Scottish public react?

A: Such a referendum would be feasible. London might try to block it but would have bigger things to worry about. The Scottish Parliament might seek to hold a referendum without the consent of London. The legality of this has never been tested because last time (2014) the two parliaments agreed.

Polls show that Brexit could slightly increase support for independence but not provide a decisive majority. Independence would be more difficult if Scotland were in the EU and the rest of the UK out, as that would create hard EU border between the two countries.

The attraction of independence in Europe has always been that, with both countries in the EU, there would be open borders and free movement of goods and people. Sharing the Pound would be impossible with one country in and another out. So independence after Brexit would be difficult to sell to the Scottish electorate.

Q: What would UK’s leaving the EU mean for Scotland in terms of economy and life standard?

A: Most economists believe that the effect would be negative because of the impact on trade and investment.

Q: How will the EU react to the breakup? What problems could Scotts be facing if this happens? 

A: It would be accepted. The EU has never expelled a territory that is a part of the territory of the EU and wants to remain.

There would be repercussions in Catalonia but there is no other place where independence commands anything like majority support.

There is no other country with massive support for leaving the EU, as opposed to leaving aspects of it, like the Euro of the Schengen zone. With the UK out, the EU would be me more likely to integrate more closely.