Trump Still Undecided about Syria Policy: Canadian Analyst

“Trump's Syria policy is still up in the air, but already there is better coordination with Russia over Raqqa,” Eric Walberg said in an interview with the Tasnim News Agency.

“Trump has said repeatedly that the two powers (the US and Russia) should cooperate against the Daesh, and he has indicated that the future of Russia-backed Assad is of less concern to him,” he added.

Eric Walberg is known worldwide as a journalist specializing in the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. A graduate of University of Toronto and Cambridge in economics, he has been writing on East-West relations since the 1980s. Presently a writer for the foremost Cairo newspaper, Al Ahram, he is also a regular contributor to Counterpunch, Dissident Voice, Global Research, and Turkish Weekly, and is a commentator on Voice of the Cape radio.

Following is the full text of the interview:

Tasnim: As you know, since 2014, the United States, along with a number of its allies, has been leading an anti-terror campaign in Syria and neighboring Iraq. Reports suggest that the campaign has fallen well short of eliminating the terrorists, raising questions as to the nature of the coalition’s military engagement. Recently, the US-led coalition against Daesh (ISIL or ISIS) said additional US forces had been deployed to Syria to accelerate the defeat of the foreign-backed terrorist group in its Syrian base of operations at Raqqa city. What is your take on the move without Damascus consent? What is behind this decision?

Walberg: There are now 900 US troops in Syria to provide artillery support to local Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group of 45,000 Syrian Kurdish, and Arab rebel forces fighting to retake Raqqa. A contingent of Army Rangers arrived in nearby Manbij as a visible presence to prevent the Turkish military and Kurdish forces from fighting each other. Local forces have been working since December to isolate Raqqa in advance of a full offensive on the city. The deployment to Syria is similar to one in Iraq in early 2016 when 200 Marines established a fire base in northern Iraq to support Iraqi troops pushing northward toward Mosul.

The deployment did not require a presidential authorization since the troops were already in the Middle East, and the movement of troops into Syria was not included in the proposals presented to President Trump to accelerate the fight against Daesh. President Trump's national security adviser and two of his cabinet are generals, more than any since WWII, and Trump has increased the military budget, indicating he is serious about pursuing Daesh through military action. So far, his intention to cooperate with Russia on such international issues has not been acted on, as he faces opposition from both the Democrats and some of his own Republicans. This obstruction looks like a recipe for more US military action, rather than less, as Trump promised during his nomination campaign. A recipe for disaster.

US support for the rebels since 2014 has been opposed by Russia, over concerns that arms will fall into the hands of Daesh supporters. The deployment of US troops since March has not raised any special alarm in Russia, which hopes that Trump can overcome the Russophobia in Washington and continue with his vow to work with Russia. Assuming Trump's intention to improve relations with Russia is genuine, the next few months will be important to see just how this lack of direction pans out.

Both the US and Russia have a dilemma over relations with Turkey, which does not approve of any cooperation with Kurdish forces. Objective forces logically point to cooperation, both against Daesh and against Turkish sectarianism.

Turkish President Erdogan's grudging reversal of his all-out support for the overthrow of Assad has been a spectacular failure, muddying his relations with Russia, benefiting the Kurds, while doing him no good with the US. The issue of Syrian President Assad's fate is no longer at the top of the agenda of the international efforts to turn back Daesh. Assad's fate awaits the results of the current campaign in Raqqa. Over the past year, the SDF have pushed Daesh out of the cities of Kobani, Jarabulus, Manbij and al-Shaddadi. The success of the SDF relative to Damascus in defeating Daesh will ultimately become the deciding factor in determining the post-Daesh future of Syria, with no help from Turkey.

Tasnim: During his joint address to Congress on February 28, 2017, Trump said, “As promised, I directed the Department of Defense to develop a plan to demolish and destroy ISIS (Daesh)…”. Do not you believe that more US troops in the crisis-hit Arab country will worsen the situation there given the fact that the Syrian army has made major advances in its fight against the terrorists?

Walberg: The recapture of all of Aleppo in December 2016 by Syrian government forces was widely seen as a potential turning point in Syria's civil war. The current US strategy is to help the SDF gain some victories, in the first place in Raqqa. Trump has been refashioning Obama's plan to use the Kurds, now adding US troops, a risky strategy.

Erdogan doesn't want anything to do with the Kurds. The Kurdish fighters who volunteered to help the Americans have ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the Turkish and US governments consider a terrorist group, though Trump's generals have dismissed this threat. Now with US troops involved, the options are broader. The logical next step is for Trump and his top advisers to increase coordination with Russia and even Assad to seize Raqqa, leaving Erdogan out in the cold.

US General Stephen Townsend, who commands the Combined Joint Task Force on Syria, told Turkey publicly to stop fighting the Kurds and focus on Daesh. He insisted that the Turkish People's Protection Units (YPG) are not a threat to Turkey, citing the fact that Manbij was turned over by the YPG to the Manbij Military Council, Arab fighters within the SDF. Kurdish police are in charge of local security, but the Americans have insisted that YPG fighters have largely left the scene. The Manbij Military Council invited the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to take over several nearby villages as part of a deal brokered by Russia to avoid conflict with the Turks. Russian and Syrian humanitarian convoys immediately headed toward Manbij.

The Raqqa plans effectively shut the door on Turkey’s demands that Syrian Kurds, considered terrorists by Ankara, be denied US equipment and kept out of the upcoming offensive. Erdogan vowed to move his own troops and Turkish-allied Syrian rebel forces toward Raqqa independently. Turkey and Erdogan have become the biggest headache for the US (and Russia) in the current situation. The only hope is that US-Russian cooperation could push Turkey into a more sensible policy, easing the way forward. Trump has said repeatedly that the two powers should cooperate against the Daesh, and he has indicated that the future of Russia-backed Assad is of less concern to him.

Tasnim: Do you believe that Trump, like Obama, is sacrificing American blood and treasure in foreign wars in the name of fighting terrorism?

Walberg: Other than joining Russia and Iran in supporting the Syrian army, there was the only real alternative for Trump to using US ground troops against Raqqa, supporting the non-Daesh rebels and coordinating with the Syrian army. The combined Syrian Arab-Kurdish force, now numbering more than 50,000, has moved steadily to within less than six miles of the outskirts of Raqqa in an isolation phase that is expected to be completed in the coming weeks. How well the surge is coordinated with the Syrian army will determine its success.

Trump's Syria policy is still up in the air, but already there is better coordination with Russia over Raqqa. Turkey has little choice with both his 'friends' -- the US and Russia -- unhappy with his sectarianism. Trump was elected largely based on a deep disillusionment with US military adventures, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan and culminating in the invasion of Iraq. It is unlikely that he will undertake more such reckless schemes, though Democratic machinations over his detente intentions with Russia could lead to that. The next few months will show what he has in mind and whether he can overcome the pseudo-scandal over relations with Russia. Russia and Iran are awaiting his next move.