US Analyst Explains What Will Happen If Trump Withdraws before Polling Day

“If it happens prior to the election: First, both parties would nominate someone else to be on the ticket if a candidate is incapacitated or dies before an election,” Myles Hoenig, who ran for the US Congress in 2016 as a Green Party candidate, said.

Following is the full text of the interview:

Tasnim: What happens if a US presidential candidate is ill and has to withdraw before polling day? 

Hoenig: If it happens prior to the election: First, both parties would nominate someone else to be on the ticket if a candidate is incapacitated or dies before an election.

For the Democrats, the Democratic National Committee chairman – currently, it is Tom Perez – would meet with the Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic leadership in Congress.

The chairman would then report to the DNC’s 447 members. Those members would decide on who would take the nominee’s place.

As for the GOP, the Republican National Committee’s 168 members would cast a vote on the leadership’s recommendation for a replacement. Three members from each state’s delegation cast the same number of votes that their state or territory is entitled to at the party’s nominating convention.

If it happens after an election but before the Electoral College vote

While Americans go to the polls to vote for the president, you are actually choosing a representative to vote for a candidate when the Electoral College convenes.

That happens on Dec. 14 this year.

Should a candidate die before the Electoral College meets in December, the process to name a replacement would be the same as if it happened prior to the election – the party would decide on a replacement.

Where there could be some uncertainty, is that the party would assume their electors would vote for the replacement chosen by the party leaders and members.

In some states, electors cannot, by law, be made to vote for a replacement. In other states, electors are legally bound to vote for the candidate that wins their state’s election.

If it happens after the vote of the Electoral College

Should a candidate die after the votes were cast by the Electoral College and before Congress counted the ballots on Jan. 6, 2021, the new Congress would have to make some decisions.

Congress would have to decide if the votes made by the Electoral College are to be counted. If they are counted, then the vice president-elect would become president.

If the Congress does not count the votes, the 12th Amendment will kick in. The amendment allows for the House of Representatives to elect a president from among the three candidates who received the most votes in the election.

If it happens after Jan. 6

If the person who was elected by the Electoral College and accepted by the Congress should die after Jan. 6, the rules of succession to the presidency would apply and the vice president would be the next president.

Tasnim: President Trump has contracted COVID-19. What is your take on this?

Hoenig: Everything from schadenfreude to karma. Here was the most powerful person in the US encouraging his followers to forego caution against the virus. We can include those people in with the over 200,000 already murdered by this president. He knew it was deadly but for fear of upsetting Wall Street, and his #1 campaign issue, a strong economy, he downplayed the crisis. The only thing is how Wall Street is doing has very little to do with how the economy is doing and everyday people’s lives.

Trump has flaunted the rules, regulations, dictums, and advice from medical professionals, on and off his staff. His callous disregard for other people’s lives has been his calling card for nearly all his life. In fact, he knew he was exposed to a carrier yet delved right into crowds coming out to see and ‘glorify’ in his presence.
Except for all the people he’s likely infected, it couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person.

Tasnim: Can a presidential election be delayed?

Hoenig: A presidential election cannot be delayed. It is written in the Constitution to be the first Tuesday in November. Changing the Constitution takes months, sometimes years, but only when there is a sustained groundswell of support.

Tasnim: What happens if a president dies in office?

Hoenig: Eight presidents have died while in office. Abraham Lincoln and John Kennedy, and two others, were assassinated. The rules of succession are unambiguous. The Vice President immediately assumes the role, once sworn in. Many Vice Presidents are chosen, not so they can take over if the worst happens, but often as presidential insurance against assassination or impeachment. The argument goes that the 2^nd choice is often far worse that the first, and that dissuades the other party from trying to remove the president. That’s the more cynical reason for how a vice president is chosen. Mostly, it’s either for political or ideological balance, or geographical balance, or playing the numbers game with the Electoral College.

If there is a vacancy in the Vice President’s office, the President chooses a replacement to be approved by Congress. The last Vice President that resigned was Spiro Agnew under Richard Nixon. He left after being charged as an unindicted co-conspirator in a criminal case. The only other one to resign happened in 1832. Seven have died in office.

Tasnim: What happens if the president is incapacitated?
Hoenig: If a president is incapacitated the 25^th amendment kicks in. It sets up a procedure for the Vice President to assume the role and powers of the President. If the president steps down voluntarily due to incapacity, he can later declare he is prepared to return, but then it’ll be up to the acting President and certain principle (Cabinet, and other) officers identified in the amendment.

Another way for a president to be removed is if the Vice President and certain officers declare him incapable for whatever reason they decide. For much of the 3 1/2 years of the Trump administration, many had hoped that this feature would be invoked.