High Inflation Still Top Concern for Global Economy, Economists Say
TEHRAN (Tasnim) - Persistently high inflation remains the biggest economic concern this year even as most central banks are at or near the end-game for rate rises, according to Reuters polls of economists who also upgraded their 2023 growth forecasts from three months ago.
With the global economy performing better than expected so far this year, most major economies were forecast to escape an outright recession or get away with a shallow one, suggesting that policymakers have their work cut out in taming inflation.
Median forecasts for a majority of the 45 economies covered were upgraded from the January poll. The survey pegged global growth at 2.5% for the year, up from 2.1% expected three months ago but below the International Monetary Fund's 2.8% view.
Economists have also upgraded their inflation outlook. Median forecasts were raised for over two-thirds of 45 economies polled and economists said they were bracing for inflation to top their predictions, not undershoot them.
More than a three-quarters majority of economists, 207 of 268, who answered an additional question said the bigger risk to their 2023 inflation view was for it to be higher than they expected. Just 61 said it could be lower than forecast.
The poll findings, which do not suggest imminent easing by the Federal Reserve, were at odds with market expectations for US policy easing to start by end-year.
The Fed was forecast to deliver a final 25-basis-point rate increase in May and then hold steady for the rest of 2023, the latest Reuters poll showed.
The European Central Bank was expected to hike its deposit rate by a similar amount next week and then again in June, and the Bank of England is also forecast to deliver a rate rise in May.
When asked what was the biggest risk to the global economy in the near-term, a slim majority of economists, 94 of 176, picked persistently high inflation. The remaining 82 chose financial turmoil.
Financial markets spent much of March in the grips of worry about the health of regional banks in the US and Europe, concerns which have since subsided.
Tight labor markets in the developed world, where unemployment rates are near their lowest in decades, was also likely to keep growth and inflation elevated.
The US unemployment rate was expected to rise from 3.5% currently to 4.3% by the end of 2023 and average 4.5% in 2024, still historically low compared to previous recessions.
Growth was expected to average 1.1% and 0.8% this year and in 2024, respectively. Economic growth in No. 2 economy China was expected to pick up to 5.4% this year from 3.0% last year.