Moderate Expectations from Possible US-China Summit, Top Diplomats in Washington Say

The envoys were speaking in a rare on-record public discussion on US-China relations on Monday in Washington at the Council on Foreign Relations, a prominent think tank, The Straits Times Reported.

Both presidents are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Nov 11-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco. No details have been announced yet, however.

The ambassadors – Laurent Bili of France, Lui Tuck Yew of Singapore and Kevin Rudd of Australia – all served previously in China. Lui has been Singapore’s Ambassador to the US since June.

China and the US have been able to stabilize their relationship after a downward spiral, talking to each other rather than past each other, Lui said.

It is too much to hope, however, that just one meeting will lead to a “meeting of minds”, he added.

He cited “mutual suspicion, intractable issues (and) an absence of strategic trust” which meant “it will be some time before a sustained uptrend”.

He noted as well that the relationship remains vulnerable to events like an alleged Chinese spy balloon that drifted over the US earlier this year, scuttling a trip to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and plunging relations to a new low.

Rudd, a former Prime Minister of Australia and author of 2022 book The Avoidable War: The Dangers of A Catastrophic Conflict Between the US And Xi Jinping’s China, noted three underlying strategic realities.

China has moved from the margins to the center of global power, Xi wants to change the status quo in “a direction more accommodating of Chinese interests and values”, and the US and its allies have chosen to resist that, he said.

“We need to be realistic about these strategic underpinnings,” Rudd added. “My judgment is that both countries and their leaders right now are seeking to stabilize the relationship – but stabilize it, not normalize it.”

Beijing and Washington still view relations through different lenses, he said. “For China, the interest is to stabilize (the relationship) in a direction which… reopens more trade, more investment or access to capital markets, not just for the US but with countries around the world including Europe,” he added.

“In other words, to relieve some of the internal economic tension, which China now faces because of declining growth because of difficulties in its own domestic economic model.”

The US’ view of stabilization is somewhat different, he contended.

Washington has “embarked on a conscious campaign of economic derisking from China… whether it is critical minerals, or semiconductors, but it does wish to resume military to military dialogue with the PLA in order to reduce the risk of… war with China in the South China Sea or over the Taiwan Strait by accident.”

PLA is the People’s Liberation Army.

“So I think they’re coming at it through different lenses. That’s why I think we will at best have modest outcomes from the upcoming proposed summit,” he said.

Bili said the US and China are trying to stabilize their relationship but huge differences remain, leaving potential for volatility.

On the question of Taiwan, Lui said: “The US has been proceeding very cautiously, I think they understand that for Taiwan, there is careful calibration of dual deterrence and dual assurance. You typically think of it as you need to deter China, you need to reassure Taiwan. The truth is that you do need in some way to quietly deter Taiwan not to shift further towards independence, and you do need to quietly reassure China that peaceful reunification is not out of the window.

“So it’s a careful calibration of dual deterrence and dual reassurance, and I think the US is managing that quite well.”

While there are concerns that the US has been moving away from “strategic ambiguity” – essentially, leaving China guessing as to whether the US would intervene militarily if Beijing uses force to annex Taiwan – there are others who should be concerned as to whether China is running out of “strategic patience”, he added.

“It is that strategic patience – that peaceful reunification in whatever form is within reach – that has helped to preserve the peace and stability of our part of the world,” he said.