Antibiotic Resistance Could Lead to 39 Million Deaths by 2050, Study Warns

More than 39 million people could die from antibiotic-resistant infections between now and 2050, according to a study published Monday in The Lancet.

The study's authors predict a nearly 70% rise in deaths related to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from 2022 to 2050, with older populations driving the increase in fatalities.

AMR occurs when bacteria, fungi, and other microbes evolve, rendering existing medications ineffective.

“It’s a big problem, and it is here to stay,” said Christopher J. L. Murray, senior author of the study and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Antimicrobial resistance has long been a public health concern, but this study—part of the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project—is the first to analyze AMR trends globally over time.

The World Health Organization warns that AMR not only makes common infections harder to treat but also increases the risks associated with medical procedures such as chemotherapy and Caesarean sections.

The research examined 520 million datasets, including hospital records, insurance claims, and death certificates from 204 countries.

Through statistical modeling, the study found that more than a million deaths related to AMR occurred each year between 1990 and 2021.

Since then, the number of AMR-related deaths has continued to rise, and researchers project an acceleration in the coming years.

Kevin Ikuta, a lead author of the study and assistant professor at UCLA, said the projected 39 million deaths by 2050 equates to roughly three deaths every minute.

The burden of AMR is not evenly distributed.

While children under five experienced a more than 50% reduction in AMR-related deaths from 1990 to 2021, seniors aged 70 and older saw an 80% increase.

The authors predict that deaths among children will continue to decrease, halving by 2050, while deaths among seniors will double during the same period.

The findings suggest that as the global population ages, AMR deaths among older individuals could soon surpass those in other age groups, significantly increasing the overall toll.

Regions in South Asia are expected to experience the highest number of deaths, with an estimated 11.8 million fatalities—approximately 30% of the 39 million total.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to see a large number of AMR deaths.

“Increasingly, we’re seeing that antibiotics are being overused or misused, which just puts more pressure on bacteria to become more resistant,” Ikuta said.

The study calls for better antibiotic stewardship to balance improving access to antibiotics while curbing excessive use.

Ishani Ganguli, a primary care physician and associate professor at Harvard Medical School, emphasized the importance of patient education in reducing unnecessary antibiotic use.

She shared that some patients inquire about antibiotics for viral infections like the common cold, which cannot be treated with antibiotics.

“If there is a disconnect and the person I’m sitting with really wants an antibiotic … and I don’t think it’s going to help them in that case, I will more often turn to the ways in which it would hurt them,” Ganguli explained, citing side effects such as diarrhea and yeast infections.

Ganguli stresses that providing alternative treatment options, like saltwater gargles and humidifiers for colds, is part of her role as a clinician.

In addition to antibiotic stewardship, the authors advocate for infection prevention measures, including wider access to clean water and vaccines, and the development of new antibiotics to reduce AMR-related deaths.

Murray emphasized the need for a coordinated global response, stating, “You can’t do this piecemeal. You really need a concerted global effort.”