Scientists Develop DNA-Based Test to Estimate Risk of Death within a Year

The findings could bring experts closer to a 'date of death' test, although many caution the method should not be used for concrete predictions.

A team from Tally Health, a New York-based biotechnology company, has developed an epigenetic clock called CheekAge, which estimates biological age by analyzing cheek cells.

Rather than focusing on chronological age, the test examines biological age, which can vary due to factors like genetics, stress, sleep, nutrition, and smoking.

The researchers tested the method on 1,513 individuals, born in 1921 and 1936, tracking their mortality over time.

The analysis revealed a significant link between changes in DNA and mortality. Participants with the highest CheekAge scores were 148% more likely to die within the year compared to those with the lowest scores.

The CheekAge method proved to be more accurate than other epigenetic clocks that use blood samples, according to the team. However, the study was retrospective, meaning the method was tested on individuals who had already passed away.

The researchers published their findings in Frontiers in Aging, suggesting the cheek swab could be a valuable, non-invasive tool for studying aging. "This implies that a simple, non-invasive cheek swab can be a valuable alternative for studying and tracking the biology of aging," the team wrote.

However, experts warn that the test should not be interpreted as a predictor of the exact date or year of death. Adele Murrell, Professor of Epigenetics at the University of Bath, said, "I see no evidence that the CheekAge clock will be able to forecast the day or even year that someone will die."

Murrell also noted that changes to DNA are theoretically reversible, making the method more useful as a warning for lifestyle risks. "Given these changes are as a result of lifestyle choices like smoking, weight gain, poor diet, and underlying diseases, it’s not clear whether patients will change their lifestyle when confronted with epigenetic data," she added.

Dusko Ilic, Professor of Stem Cell Sciences at King’s College London, agreed, saying, "Such clocks provide probabilistic risk assessments rather than concrete predictions." Ilic also expressed concern that focusing on mortality might cause anxiety, recommending that CheekAge be used to promote healthier aging rather than as a death predictor.

Researchers suggest that further studies could involve living participants to determine the accuracy of predicting future mortality using CheekAge.