Americans Divided as 27% Consider Civil War Likely After Presidential Election

According to the survey, conducted between October 18-21 for The Times and the SAY24 project, 6% of respondents believe a second civil war is “very likely,” while 21% consider it “somewhat likely.”

The poll found similar levels of concern among supporters of both Republican candidate Trump and Democratic nominee Harris.

Among the 1,266 respondents, 12% reported knowing someone who might resort to armed action if they felt Trump were unfairly denied victory. In comparison, 5% said they know someone who would do the same for Harris.

Although the survey explored gun ownership, it uncovered no clear link between firearm possession and beliefs about the likelihood of civil war.

The findings underscore deep societal divisions, with 84% of respondents agreeing that the United States is more divided today than a decade ago.

After President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, Democrats initially saw a boost in their polling numbers. However, Trump now leads in most key swing states, albeit within the margin of error.

The backdrop of election tensions is framed by the events of January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to block the certification of Biden’s victory. The chaotic demonstration, described by Democrats and Biden as an “insurrection,” resulted in the arrest of 1,457 participants. While most received misdemeanor charges for trespassing, some faced more severe offenses.

Trump, who has recently survived multiple assassination attempts, is currently facing federal charges for allegedly inciting the January 6 riot by urging his followers to “fight like hell” against Biden’s certification. His legal team argues that his remarks, which also included calls to protest “peacefully and patriotically,” were constitutionally protected.