Catalonia Set to Elect New Regional Parliament Ruled by ‘Independentistas’

For many Catalans, however, the election is about more than the business of provincial administration. It is about national sovereignty.

“Personally, I’m going to vote for independence,” said Gonçal Badenes, a scientist who lives and works in Castelldefels, a suburb of Barcelona, Catalonia’s capital. “If you had told me 10 years ago that [I would support independence], I would have said no. But the situation has changed for me.”

The tension has been building in Catalonia since 2010, when the Spanish Supreme Court struck down key passages of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, a document asserting Catalonia’s right to determine its constitutional future, Al Jazeera reports.

Over the last five years, Catalan nationalists, or independentistas, have fought a grueling political campaign against Spanish rule, fueled, in part, by growing resentment among Catalans of the large fiscal subsidies they send to less developed parts of the country.

On Nov. 9 last year, Catalonia staged a nonbinding — and, according to Spanish government ministers, illegal — referendum on secession. Two million Catalans cast ballots, with more than 80 percent backing independence. If they win on Sunday, nationalists say they will have a mandate to break up Spain.

“The central government in Madrid has denied the right of Catalan people to express their views, to say whether they support independence or not. And this has completely reversed my opinion and the opinion of many people I know,” said Badenes.

Experts agree that Sunday’s vote is crucial.

“This is certainly the most important election Catalonia has held since we regained democracy,” said Laura Pous Trull, a journalist working for the Catalan news agency ACN. “It looks as though [the nationalists] will win the most seats and maybe a majority of votes.

“The Catalan government’s preference has always been to have a legal referendum, like the one Scotland had last year … But if Spain [refuses] to move a millimeter, it is possible that Catalonia will declare independence [unilaterally].”

This spring, in an effort to maximize their leverage, Catalonia’s two main nationalist parties — center-right Convergència, which has governed the region for most of the last 30 years, and center-left Esquerra Republicana — agreed to form a joint electoral list. Polls suggest that the resulting coalition, Junts pel Si (Together for Yes), will secure about 65 of the devolved Catalan parliament’s 135 seats, leaving it just shy of the 68 seats needed to declare outright victory. However, Junts pel Si is likely to receive the support of left-wing separatist party CUP, whose projected share of 10 seats would all but guarantee nationalist control of the parliament.

Catalan president and Convergència leader Artur Mas has set out an 18-month timetable for separation. During this period, he intends to develop the infrastructure of an independent state, including a distinct Catalan tax authority and an embassy network.

Madrid’s hard-line stance against Catalan separatism has been backed by an array of global leaders. In recent weeks, US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron have all expressed support for Spanish unity.

Nonetheless, Catalan diplomats are convinced that, if Catalonia votes to leave Spain, international policymakers will eventually accommodate the embryonic Catalan state.

“We are very serious about self-determination,” said Albert Royo, the secretary-general of the Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia, a Barcelona-based organization dedicated to promoting Catalan interests abroad. “There will be a moment in time when the international community recognizes that there will be no U-turn, that we are going to go for it.

“At that point, [international institutions] will recognize that their interests are at stake, and they will convince Madrid to sit down and find a proper democratic solution.”