US Economists Expect Inflation, Interest Rates to Stay High: Survey
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – A new survey of economists found that respondents expect the Federal Reserve to make little progress this year on curbing rising prices, saying they expect inflation and interest rates will remain stubbornly high.
The National Association for Business Economics’s (NABE) survey included responses from 45 economists.
The group forecasts inflation to average 4.2 percent this year, which is up from 3.9 percent in the group’s February survey, AP reported.
The new survey also found the economists believe the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate around 5.1 percent this year, which is the highest it has been in 16 years, The Hill reported.
“Respondents to the latest NABE Outlook Survey are divided as to whether a recession in the US is likely in the next year,” said NABE President Julia Coronado in a statement. “However, the median forecast calls for economic growth through 2024 to be modest.”
“On balance, the panel expects higher interest rates in 2023 than forecasted in the February 2023 Outlook Survey,” she added. “Interest rates are expected to decline and inflation is expected to slow in 2024, while job growth is anticipated to moderate, and the unemployment rate to rise.”
The AP also reported the economists said the economy would grow only 1.2 percent this year, and three-fifths of respondents said the United States would see a recession in the next 12 months.
“Most respondents indicate the banking crisis is contained but ongoing, with only about one-fifth believing it will worsen,” NABE Outlook Survey Chairwoman Dana M. Peterson said in a statement.
“A majority of panelists believes breaching the debt ceiling will not bring on a global financial crisis unless an impasse persists for several weeks. Most respondents believe de-dollarization is not a threat over the foreseeable future,” Peterson added.
