New Study Offers Hope in Predicting Alzheimer's Disease Progression
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – A recent study has developed a tool capable of forecasting cognitive decline over the next five years for individuals showing early signs of Alzheimer's disease, aiming to alleviate uncertainties faced by patients and caregivers.
Physician-researcher Pieter van der Veere from Amsterdam University, alongside colleagues, conducted a comprehensive analysis involving 961 patients, with an average age of 65 years. Among them, 651 exhibited mild dementia, while 310 showed mild cognitive impairment, all with amyloid beta plaques—a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease, according to ScienceAlert.
Using MRI scans, biomarkers from cerebrospinal fluid, and considering factors such as age, gender, medical history, and cognitive test scores over time, the researchers developed a predictive model. This model categorized cognitive states based on scores out of 30: scores above 25 indicated no dementia, 21 to 24 suggested mild dementia, 10 to 20 indicated moderate dementia, and scores below 10 signified severe dementia.
The study revealed that patients with mild cognitive impairment started with an average score of 26.4, declining to 21 after five years. In contrast, those with mild dementia saw a sharper decline from 22.4 to 7.8 over the same period, highlighting faster progression.
Neuroscientist Wiesje van der Flier emphasized the potential impact of these findings on treatment decisions: "In the future, improved prediction models could facilitate discussions among physicians, patients, and families regarding the benefits and drawbacks of treatment options."
According to the models, a patient with a baseline cognitive score of 28 and mild cognitive impairment might progress to moderate impairment in six years. With medication reducing decline rates by 30%, this progression could be delayed to 8.6 years.
For patients starting with mild dementia and a score of 21, progression to moderate impairment would typically occur in 2.3 years, extending to 3.3 years with medication.
While the study's predictions were generally close to actual outcomes for many patients, variability was observed, underscoring the challenge of precise prognoses in clinical settings.
Despite these challenges, the researchers remain optimistic about refining their models to better predict disease progression and address patients' concerns regarding quality of life and daily activities.
"We hope these models will eventually aid physicians in providing more tailored answers to patients' questions," Van der Veere concluded, highlighting the study's potential impact on future Alzheimer's research and patient care.
