Hegemonic US-Built New World Order Eroding: American Analyst

“I agree that the hegemonic US-built New World Order of the post-Cold War is eroding in every sector except military power. But with difficult economic times in the forecast that too is on the horizon,” Beau Grosscup, California State University Professor Emeritus of Political Science, told Tasnim.

Following is the full text of the interview.

Tasnim: US President Donald Trump on Friday said he does not believe North Korean leader Kim Jong Un violated any pact with him by launching another round of projectiles. "He likes testing missiles," Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for the Group of Seven economic summit in France. North Korea continues to test missiles and Trump says US already has good ties with them. What is behind this soft tone?

Grosscup: The conventional 'wisdom' is that Trump hasn't met a dictator he doesn't like (an image of how he sees himself). I think the 'soft tone' is consistent with his continuing effort to set himself apart from his presidential predecessors. In his mind, they all were willing to work with previous and current North Korean dictators but were not able to 'make a deal.' He sees himself as the great 'deal maker' so his approach is consistent with that. Plus, he has nothing to lose and much to gain working with Kim Jong Un, who is likely to be in power for a long time. As a real estate salesman, it's not by accident that Trump has said several times how great North Korean beaches are and condos would look great on them. If he stays on good relations with Kim, after his presidency he sees himself back in the real estate business with much greater clout and connections (Kim). Crazy as it seems, his effort to buy Greenland is for the same reason. He is, first and foremost, a real estate con artist.

Tasnim: The US has decided to set up an international patrol mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, calling on its allies to join it. A number of countries, including Germany, France, and Japan, have turned down Washington’s request. It seems that the divide between the US and its close allies is growing. What do you think?

Grosscup: Yes, the divide, particularly with Germany and France is growing wider. Japanese leaders are keeping their criticism of Trump Administration more muted, but they too have the same concern. All three allies are not interested in doing anything to encourage the Trump Administration to attack Iran, or in these pre-attack days to signal their approval of such a plan. To join in these alleged 'defensive military patrol missions' would do just that. The British, particularly under Johnson, given their historical antagonisms toward a 'free' Iran, are predictably on board with the Trump Administration even though their 'oil' industry is at great risk of being disrupted should war come.

Tasnim: According to a recent article published by the Washington Post, “Long-term trends show that China is catching up to the United States on just about every conceivable capability metric. Short-term trends show the European Union is a more potent regulatory power and the United States has become more isolated on questions of, say, aviation regulation”.  At the same time, serious international relations scholars have argued that US hegemonic power is nearing its end. What are your thoughts on this?

Grosscup: I agree that the hegemonic US-built New World Order of the post-Cold War is eroding in every sector except military power. But with difficult economic times in the forecast that too is on the horizon. Thus the 'race to militarize space.' Beginning in early 1990's the US National Security State identified both China and the European Union as two of the 3 (Japan) 'long term' enemies of the US who under its strategic goal of preventing the rise of a competing major power (Russia in the immediate sense) threatened its global hegemonic position. With Japan and China, they see the threat very much in racial terms (rise of the Yellow Peril) and cultural terms (clash of civilizations including Islam), with Europe and Russia, in economic terms (soft power) including how capitalism is to be practiced (Battle of Capitalisms). Europe's regulatory and safety net "welfare capitalism,' and Japan/China's 'state' capitalism both challenge the US 'free market' model of how to do business in the New World Order. The evidence is that the European and Asian models are winning, and have greater long term staying power, thus undermining US leadership in all fields, with China/European challenges to the hegemonic position of the US$ being the most important.