Poll: A Third of Americans Question Legitimacy of Biden Victory Nearly A Year since Jan. 6

A new University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released Tuesday highlights how partisanship has hardened in the year since the deadly Jan. 6 attack and the stark breakdown on how Democrats and Republicans view that day and the results of last November’s presidential race.

Fifty-eight percent of respondents surveyed across the country believe Biden’s victory was legitimate, while 33% contend it was illegitimate – numbers that have held steady since the university’s last poll on the subject in April. Of Republicans polled, an overwhelming majority of them – 71% – still contest the 2020 election results. Only 21% believe Biden’s win was legitimate, US News reported.

For respondents who still question the legitimacy, the top reason cited was voter fraud, specifically fraudulent ballots favoring Biden that were “counted by election officials in certain states.” There was no evidence of rampant voter fraud in 2020, an assessment backed up by former president Donald Trump’s Justice Department.

“Regardless of the truth of the situation, public officials need to shore up faith in how we vote,” said Raymond La Raja, a political science professor at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. “These are extremely worrisome perceptions, and improved faith in the electoral process won’t happen until Republicans stop saying the election was stolen.”

The poll’s findings come about a week and a half ahead of the one-year mark since the Capitol attack as a House select committee ramps up its investigation into the origins of the riot and who in power may have been involved, largely zeroing in on Trump and his allies inside and outside of the White House. The panel is now requesting information from two sitting GOP lawmakers, both of whom challenged the certification of the election just hours after the riots.

When asked which person or group holds the most responsibility for the Jan. 6 riots, a large plurality of Americans – 44% – holds Trump accountable. But challenges to the 2020 election, which are amplified by the former president and many Republican lawmakers, continue to be a strong political and electoral force in the GOP.

Fifty-five percent of Republicans say they’d be more likely to vote for a GOP candidate running in the 2022 midterm elections who questions the legitimacy of Biden’s victory. Majorities in both chambers of Congress are at stake next year and, according to historical trends in midterm elections, Republicans hold an edge.

The findings also don’t bode well for GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach Trump over his handling of the Jan. 6 attack. Sixty-eight percent of Republican respondents would be less likely to support someone who supported impeachment efforts, a troubling prospect for those running for reelection in 2022. But many of those Republicans are retiring at the end of the session.

Ten House Republicans joined all Democrats earlier this year to impeach Trump for a second time. Only two of them sit on the select committee investigating Jan. 6: Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. Meanwhile in the Senate, seven GOP senators voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial, which was ultimately unsuccessful.

“Perceptions of the events of Jan. 6 have remained strikingly stable over the past year, despite the dramatic and disturbing revelations of the Jan. 6 Commission,” said Jesse Rhodes, political science professor at UMass Amherst and associate director of the poll. “This stability reveals the remarkable power of ideology and partisanship in shaping these perceptions, even in the face of contrary evidence.”

The university’s poll was conducted by YouGov with a sample size of 1,000 respondents who were surveyed from Dec. 14 to 20. The margin of error was 3.1%.