UK Ought to Find Stable Trade Partners, Avoid Reliance on Trump, Journalist Says

“The UK should move towards a more stable trading partner to support its uncertain economic future, especially that there’s a big possibility that the Trump administration will get reelected to govern the US, which means more uncertainty and instability in the global economy in favor of the internal US one,” Mohammad Kleit told Tasnim.

Following is the full text of the interview:

Tasnim: After 1,316 days of political turmoil, the UK now stands alone as the first nation to have ever left the European Union. What is your take on this?

Kleit: The UK has always dealt with the European Union as an economic opportunity to its post-WWII status, since its economy wasn’t thriving as other nations that participated in the war, especially Germany, France, and Italy. During the Thatcher reign in the UK (1979 – 1990), the UK economy showed a big spike after the kingdom had joined 6 years before she was appointed prime minister. This was primarily due to the vast market the EU had opened for the UK, yet it was problematic during those years due to the influx of immigrant workers coming from less economically stable countries in the EU, especially in the East of the continent. This has created the controversy between upholding a strong economy, a vast open market, and free trade; and keeping the UK within its borders while preserving its “sovereignty”.

Now considering the fact that you have a right-wing conservative government, which promoted xenophobia and pro-British sentiment on the expense of hate against immigrants and “the other”, as well as spreading false claims that remaining in the EU is damaging the UK economy as a whole, then it is only logical that the Tories (UK conservative party) would push towards leaving the European bloc.

Regardless of the many facts surrounding this issue, as well as its implications on the UK socio-economic, geopolitical, and security spectrum, it might create a bigger problem for the EU as an entity considering there are several nominees for departing the bloc, especially Hungary, Poland, and Italy, with the strong rise of ultra-right-wing parties in their political strata.

Tasnim: Brexit has ended the careers of two Prime Ministers and left the very future of the United Kingdom in question. Scotland's case for independence is becoming harder to ignore while Britain's perceived selling out of Northern Ireland has played into the hands of those wishing to see Irish unification. What do you think?

Kleit: On the first note, Scotland, under the rule of the Scottish National Party, will look more eager to leave the UK and remain in the EU since it’s more profitable economically and socially for the Scots. First of all, their trade profits will go directly to their pockets rather than a percentage of it going to Westminster. Secondly, they’ll preserve the opportunities opened by the freedom of movement in the EU bloc, something that they’ll be denied from when the UK leaves the EU totally after the transition period ends.

On the second note concerning the island of Ireland, it’s a complex matter that interconnects the issues of freedom of movement, trade, and political rule (pro-UK Unionists vs anti-UK Republicans, whom are also divided based on sects: Protestants vs Catholics which caused “The Troubles” war). There was always the fear of placing hard borders between both parts of the island which could return the ethno-nationalist “The Troubles” war that lasted for 40 years and ended with the infamous “Good Friday Agreement”, after it has caused the death and injury of over 50,000 persons. To make things short, a unification of Ireland would be a harder process than Brexit, due to the aforementioned complexities, yet it’s not impossible since the greater interests of both Northern Ireland and Ireland are more important than Westminster’s current political goals.

On a third note, both the Irish and the Scots’ aims, if reached unification and independence respectively, would render the name “United Kingdom” a sarcastic joke by itself.

Tasnim: Britain's economic future and place in the world have not been this uncertain since the end of World War II. How do you see its economic future?

Kleit: According to economic experts, there’s an uncertainty concerning the future of businesses in the UK, yet there will be a slight thrive after the relief of Brexit, which affected the local economy for the past 2 years, in wait for the future deal to be signed with the EU – the UK’s still biggest trade partner – to create a sustainable economic growth in the coming decade. Nevertheless, the departure from the EU would leave the UK focusing on its domestic economy and issues, but it will still remain a hard phase for the kingdom to pass due to the barriers that the EU and other countries would place for trade deals.

Tasnim: One person unlikely to be happy about this is US President Donald Trump. In his economic war with China, Trump is looking for friends. And as the UK leaves the EU, desperate to sign trade deals -- especially with the US -- he sees an opportunity to pull the UK into his orbit. Trump seemed distracted as the news broke on Tuesday and it's possible that London's assurances were enough for the US president. How much do you think Trump helped with this? How would the move affect US-UK ties in the future?

Kleit: Trump was constantly criticizing the EU like when he said that “nobody treats us much worse than the EU (Oct 15th 2018), warning it “you won’t have a better ally” than the US (July 10th 2018). In addition to that, Trump has repeatedly commented on Brexit saying that the “UK should walk away” if the EU doesn’t agree to a Brexit deal (June 2nd 2019), and many other incidents…

Trump is known to be a businessman, and he has always stressed the fact that the UK should be the US’s biggest trading partner, both during his visit to the UK to meet Boris Johnson and when the former UK PM Theresa May visited Washington. Yet, considering the kingdom’s unstable and uncertain future, a trade deal that would put them in the pocket on the US, where recent events have shown that the Trump administration isn’t a party that separates economy from personal, political and military interests, the Iran deal and trade war with China are obvious examples, not to mention that it would do the same with its allies such as Canada, the EU, Mexico, Japan, and some of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

In conclusion, the UK should move towards a more stable trading partner to support its uncertain economic future, especially that there’s a big possibility that the Trump administration will get reelected to govern the US, which means more uncertainty and instability in the global economy in favor of the internal US one.